1 July 2026
The past financial year was not kind to patient investors. Risk, concentration and momentum delivered the biggest returns, while the disciplines we usually associate with long-term investing, diversification, quality, patience, were left behind.
Alvia CIO Josh Derrington spoke with The Australian for their EOFY wrap on the year in markets, and didn’t mince words about what drove it. As Josh put it,
“Risk, aggression and concentration were rewarded, and defence, contemplation and diversification were punished.”
Josh’s read is that this is about to change. He pointed to the recent SpaceX listing as a possible turning point, the moment the market starts rotating back toward quality after a long stretch of chasing concentrated momentum bets. In his view, the investors who look smartest in three years’ time won’t be the ones who rode this year’s winners. They’ll be the ones who held quality through the underperformance, backed businesses generating real cash rather than promising it, and treated diversification as a discipline rather than a story to drop the moment concentrated positioning was paying off.
It’s a view shaped by decades of watching cycles turn, and one worth sitting with as we head into FY27.