Daniel Martin joined Ricardo Gonçalves on SBS Australia’s On the Money to break down a big week in markets and what it means for investors looking beyond the headlines.
The immediate catalyst was a US-Iran interim deal that sent the ASX surging 1.3% to a two-month high, its strongest close since mid-April. Oil pulled back sharply, airlines bounced hard, and energy names gave ground. But with no details locked in and a signing ceremony still days away, Daniel flagged that caution is warranted. The underlying supply-demand dynamics in oil do not simply rebalance overnight.
The conversation also covered the RBA and the 10-year bond yield, both of which continue to point toward rates staying higher for longer, a backdrop that matters when thinking about where value is genuinely on offer.
On the SpaceX IPO, Daniel spoke about how it is changing the rules for how companies come to market. Entering indices far earlier than historical norms and granting access to three times the typical retail investor allotment, it represents a meaningful shift in how high-profile listings are structured and who gets access.
But the sharpest part of the discussion centred on the quality factor, which has significantly underperformed over the last six months. Not because the underlying businesses have weakened, but because they are not considered AI stocks. Strong margins, low debt, solid earnings, and fundamentals that have held up. Strip the AI names out of the S&P500 and it is flat to slightly negative year to date, with around 50% of performance concentrated in just a handful of names.
That dislocation is where Alvia is focused. High-quality businesses with good margins, low debt and continued fundamental strength, that have experienced multiple compression for no reason other than a lack of AI exposure.